Mathematical Model 📊
Explore the statistical foundation behind our MLB At-Bat Prediction Engine
Model Upgraded: Now with Advanced Matchup Analysis!
Our prediction engine now goes beyond basic stats, incorporating key matchup dynamics:
Analyzes how a batter performs against a pitcher's specific top pitches.
Compares pitcher's target zones with the batter's hot/cold zones.
Player stats are weighted within realistic bounds to prevent extreme results.
Final probabilities are calibrated to ensure they are realistic and sum to 100%.
Multi-Layer Prediction System
Our model uses a sophisticated multi-layer approach to predict at-bat outcomes
League Average Baseline
Starts with 2023 MLB averages as a statistical foundation.
Player Performance Adjustments
Individual statistics modify baseline probabilities based on skill.
Advanced Matchup Dynamics
Handedness, pitch-type effectiveness, and zone-based performance are analyzed.
Calibration & Normalization
Final probabilities are bounded and scaled to ensure realistic outcomes.
Key Statistical Inputs
Real 2023 MLB data powers our prediction engine
Pitcher Metrics
- • ERA & WHIP
- • K/9 & BB/9 rates
- • Pitch arsenal usage %
- • Zone targeting %
Batter Metrics
- • AVG/OBP/SLG
- • K% & BB% rates
- • Performance by pitch type
- • Performance by zone
Matchup Factors
- • Handedness matchups (L vs R)
- • Pitch-type effectiveness (e.g., Batter vs. Slider)
- • Zone performance (e.g., Pitcher targets high vs. Batter hits high)
- • Historical head-to-head data